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A country that is first time sex video boy with babysitterconfident in its sensible centrism goes to the polls. The hard right-wing result defies pollsters. The country wakes up to recriminations, fear, regrets on the part of protest voters, and the absolute certainty that we can't even begin to predict electoral outcomes anymore. 

Are we talking about Britain in June 2016, or the U.S. in November 2016?

You don't have to look far to see analogies between the pro-Brexit campaign in the U.K. and Trump voters in the U.S. It's not just that their leaders both look like an older, fatter Draco Malfoy on a bad hair day, or that both sets of supporters are overwhelmingly white people who live outside cities and don't have college educations.

It's also that their opponents were, and are, making some dangerous assumptions about the mood of the early 21st century. Firstly, that xenophobia has basically lost the debate against diversity. Secondly, that the benefits of free trade are generally understood. Thirdly, that most people don't make hot-headed protest votes against their economic interests. 

And fourthly, that voters are smart enough to know a giant hairy lie when they see one. Such as Trump's fairy tale that Mexico is going to spend billions building a border wall for the U.S., or the Leave campaign's claim of a mythical $350 million that goes to the EU weekly and could be better spent on Britain's beloved National Health Service. UK Independence Party leader Nigel Farage admitted Friday this was a "mistake."

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But take heart, anti-Trump Americans. Although the Brexit result should certainly give you pause and warn against overconfidence, there is also good reason to believe that the connection is overblown. In many ways, this is a case of comparing apples and orange-colored politicians. 

Diversity is your friend

There's a reason the Republicans' post-mortem on the 2012 election advised the party to reach out to Hispanic voters -- and why GOP leaders wail and gnash their teeth every time Donald Trump insults Latinos. 

Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage were both attacking a perceived enemy on the outside. There are plenty of EU citizens resident in the UK, but a statistically insignificant number of them were able to vote in the referendum. 

In the U.S., by contrast, Trump's scapegoats can and do vote. Some 16% of the population is Hispanic. They already form 10% of registered voters, and another half-million are added to the electoral rolls every year. More importantly, millions of these voters live in key battleground states like Florida, Nevada and Colorado. 

Britain talks a big game when it comes to diversity. The BBC and other hubs of culture have done a belatedly great job when it comes to representing diverse faces and voices. 

But the country is simply whiter than America -- 88% of UK voters identify as Caucasian, versus 67% of U.S. voters. As this Buzzfeeddata analysis shows, if you map the UK election onto U.S. demographics, you get a 4% boost for Remain. 

If this referendum had taken place in the States, Brexit (or Amerexit?) would be a cold, dead memory instead of a specter haunting the world's markets. 

The protest vote

In Britain, even more so than the U.S., there is a tradition of telegraphing a message of frustration to leaders in off-year elections. 

At this point it's almost a reflex for the English: If you're going to the polls in a by-election, or a local council election, you tend to vote for change. If it's a parliamentary election, you tend to vote more (small-c) conservatively. 

Brexit marked only the third nationwide referendum Britain has ever had. The first was on the country's entry into Europe in 1975. The second was on changing the voting system in 2011, and it was voted down. 

It's fair to say that British voters are not overly familiar with the concept of referendums and their results. It's also fair to say that "Remain" looked like it was going to win in the days leading up to the vote, and many voters felt comfortable indulging their protest reflex. 

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And if you doubt this, just look at the vast number of Brits who are Googling the question "what happens if we leave the EU?" as you read this. Get ready to facepalm.

In the 2016 U.S. Presidential election, by contrast, there is absolutely no doubt about what's at stake. Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are worlds apart, politically and temperamentally. One of them will be the next President. You get to decide, and your decision makes a difference. 

There has already been a protest movement in this election. It was called "Bernie or Bust." Now Bernie is saying he'll "probably" vote for Hillary, and definitely work to defeat Trump, that movement doesn't have much legitimacy left. 

Also, consider this. In Britain, three of the most widely-read newspapers -- the Sun, the Daily Mailand the Express, with a combined circulation of nearly 4 million readers, have been pushing hard for Brexit for years. In the U.S., barely any newspapers have endorsed Trump; even Fox News isn't squarely in his camp. 

Democrats have often been rightly accused of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. But this time they haven't exactly been coasting when it comes to an expected win in November; they are far outspending the RNC and Trump in battleground states already. 

If anything, the shock of Brexit will harden the Dems against complacency, while making Trump himself (who doesn't even know Scotland voted to stay in) more complacent. And the likely continuing regrets from Leave voters as the long divorce wears on will serve as a chilling reminder to fence-sitters. If that boosts turnout in the U.S., so much the better. 

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Sure, history repeats itself -- but rarely so quickly. More often, it cautions against fighting the next war as if it were the last one. Different battleground, different rules.  

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